The Chiefs had no chance without Taylor Swift in the building.
Philadelphia’s win over Kansas City on Monday night moved the Eagles into a virtual tie as Super Bowl favorites, and some Caesars have both teams at +450 to secure the title.
Thanksgiving marks the beginning of the home stretch of the NFL season, and the futures market is coming into view. Some favorites have distanced themselves — but there are still a few longshot plays in the mix.
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San Francisco isn’t far behind Philadelphia and Kansas City after another dominant win in Week 11. In fact, the 49ers are actually even with the Chiefs at +450 in several spots (BetMGM, Caesars, PointsBet).
Baltimore and Miami are in their own tier at +800 and +900, respectively.
The NFC is surprisingly well-represented among the favorites, with four of the top seven teams residing in what was thought to be the weaker conference. Dallas and Detroit are as low as 10/1 at some betting sites and round out the true contenders.
Jacksonville and Buffalo are +1800 or longer in most spots. With Cleveland and Houston at 35/1 or worse, it’s looking like a three-team race to represent the AFC in the big game.
Longshot to consider: Dallas (+1200 on FanDuel) 436m1l
Unless you think Jacksonville can beat a good team when it matters or former offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was actually the problem in Buffalo, none of the AFC longshots stand out as viable. The NFC is more intriguing from a longshot betting perspective, even with two powerhouses at the top.
The Cowboys are once again in a position to secure the top wild card spot and a first-round gift, courtesy of the NFC South. After being edged out for the division crown by Philadelphia last season, Dallas beat up on Tampa Bay on the road in what was basically an opening round bye. They’re lined up to get probably either New Orleans or Atlanta this year. It should be a layup regardless of which team comes out of that division.
Dallas could certainly be fraudulent, as its schedule lacks many (any?) impressive wins, but the totality of the team’s work is hard to ignore. The Cowboys are top five in both offense and defense in of scoring and yards per game. Unless the Cowboys stumble at home against Washington or Seattle, they’ll be 9-3 heading into a rematch with Philadelphia in Week 14. This number of +1200 to win the Super Bowl will be shorter by then, and could look very different if Dallas prevails over its chief NFC East rival at home in December.
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This Monday night’s matchup also went a long way toward deciding the MVP award. With Philadelphia getting the win, Jalen Hurts distanced himself from Patrick Mahomes as the clear favorite. Lamar Jackson moved narrowly ahead of Mahomes as well.
As usual, the top of the MVP odds board is nothing but quarterbacks from the best teams. Tua Tagovailoa rounds out what is basically a top four right now, with Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy sitting at around 15/1 in most places. C.J. Stroud’s meteoric ascension has him close behind that pair, and Josh Allen is in this tier on FanDuel and BetMGM (+1800).
The sportsbooks were kind enough to give Christian McCaffrey and Tyreek Hill sympathy odds around 40/1, even though they don’t play the right position to win this award. We don’t care about your historic seasons, Christian and Tyreek.
In a similar vein, Myles Garrett is 150/1, which feels disrespectful. Again, it’s ultimately meaningless, but the books should at least have him under +10000.
Longshot to consider: Brock Purdy (+1800 on DraftKings) 184035
Purdy has actually thrown for more yards than Mahomes, Hurts, or Jackson, and only Mahomes has more ing touchdowns (by one). It’s the rushing production that elevates Hurts and Jackson. Hurts leads quarterbacks with nine rushing touchdowns (shoutout to the Tush Push) and Jackson has nearly 150 more rushing yards than the next-closest QB.
The route for Purdy would have to include San Francisco getting the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They would for sure need to beat Hurts and the Eagles in Week 13. The 49ers are two games behind Philadelphia for the top spot, but the Eagles are in the thick of the most difficult portion of their schedule. They host Buffalo on a short week, then play Purdy’s 49ers before heading on the road to face Dallas and Seattle. There could be a couple of losses in that stretch.
Detroit is a game ahead of San Francisco, and the Lions have a path to the No. 1 seed as well. The Lions have a handful of tough matchups left (at New Orleans, at Dallas, Minnesota twice), but running the table wouldn’t be out of the question. San Francisco may need to rely on Detroit’s defensive slide to continue.
But if indeed the Niners find their way to 13 or 14 wins and the top seed, their QB has a real chance at MVP honors.
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There are still seven weeks to go, but we have a pretty clear picture of the playoff race, especially in the AFC. Five teams have already reached seven wins (Baltimore, Kansas City, Miami, Jacksonville, and Cleveland) and are all but guaranteed to reach the postseason. The Browns are the only team vaguely in question (-400 to make the playoffs on BetMGM).
Houston has strengthened to -200 to get in, while Pittsburgh is -140 on Caesars to snag a playoff spot despite, well, almost everything about the team. The AFC race likely comes down to whether Buffalo can catch either of these teams. Houston only has two games remaining against likely playoff-bound teams (Jacksonville and Cleveland, both at home). Pittsburgh technically has two, but it’s more like 1.5. The Steelers get Baltimore in Week 18, which could easily feature Tyler Huntley under center if the Ravens have their seed locked up.
The NFC is a bit more interesting. Philadelphia, San Francisco, Detroit, and Dallas are locks, but everything else is up for grabs. Only one game separates the three teams in the NFC South mix. Seattle and Minnesota currently hold the final two wild card spots, but both face major questions.
Geno Smith has an elbow injury, and any additional appearances by Drew Lock would doom Seattle’s season. Joshua Dobbs has been a revelation for Minnesota, but the turnover issues that revealed themselves in Arizona popped up in Week 11 (one interception and three fumbles, though he recovered two). The best thing going for the Seahawks and Vikings is that no other NFC team has more than four wins.
Outsider to consider: Atlanta (+200) 4p5o3h
This is not quite a longshot, hence the term “outsider” above, as the Falcons would be on the outside looking in if the season ended today. The Taylor Heinicke experiment is over in Atlanta, and the team will turn back to Desmond Ridder this week. The Falcons lost three straight heading into their bye week with Heinicke (mostly) at the helm.
Ridder isn’t great, but he had the team at 4-3 prior to Heinicke taking over. And the schedule down the stretch couldn’t be much easier. The only playoff team remaining for the Falcons is the Saints, and they play twice over the final seven weeks. That’s huge, because it gives Atlanta two shots at the current NFC South leader.
The Falcons have multiple outs to hit this bet, either by overtaking New Orleans for the division or catching Minnesota (1.5 games back) or Seattle (two games back). ing the Saints would be the easiest route, and that could happen as soon as this week. The NFC South foes match up Sunday, and the Falcons are slight favorites at home. This number of +200 to make the postseason won’t be available if Atlanta takes care of business.
